This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it is always nice once you’re already familiar with the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the greatest, but there is still a great deal of money to be won. I will personally be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my cash lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with action and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind conflicts. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games because we can lock at a win and get all the points in the very best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the job done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points with this battle. So, with that win locked in, we simply need to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to want to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a somewhat lower possession as a consequence of his large salary, and he has a very good chance at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he will have 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, then I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he’s a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up a finish inside this struggle so that I will throw him in some GPPs and hope he’s beneath owned.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless value play of the week. Currently, Fili is the gambling favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it is available so that I presume he’s in play in all formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with all the value we are becoming on him, but I am willing to consume that chalk and I don’t want to get burnt by entirely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic chance at winning this battle. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal bias but I will not possess Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to attack. I believe this will be a remarkable battle also and I think it will be nearer than the odds indicate. At $8.9k I believe we will need a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you should be enjoying him. I will just be paying up someplace because I am not sure he can find that finish and I would not be shocked if he lost the fight. I will say that I never look to use Dober in DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of this week for UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each fight, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my pick outlook for every fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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